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Kansas has taken 17 of the 19 games all-time against Baylor.
Perry Jones III totaled 18 points and Quincy Miller added 17 for the Bears (17-1, 4-1), who set a school record for best start to the season.
Queens, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jamal Branch has transferred from Texas A&M to St. John's. Branch, who appeared in 11 games for the Aggies in the fall of 2011, can begin practicing with the Red Storm but cannot play until December of 2012.
Branch averaged 4.2 points, 2.5 assists and 2.2 rebounds while playing 18.6 minutes during his brief stay at Texas A&M. He played against St. John's during the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in November and scored seven points with five rebounds in 24 minutes.
As for the Spartans, already 3-2 against ranked foes in 2011-12, they are coming off a loss of their own on Saturday as they bowed to Northwestern on the road in an 81-74 final. The defeat was just the third of the year for a program that had won 15 in a row since falling to top-ranked North Carolina in the season opener and then sixth-ranked Duke four days later.
Michigan took itself out of contention against Iowa by shooting just 34.8 percent from the field in the first half, including 3-of-16 behind the three- point line. Obviously things improved after the break for the visitors, but not enough so that the Wolverines could prevent defeat. Trey Burke was responsible for a team-best 19 points, and Zack Novak 14 to go along with his game-high eight rebounds, yet the Hawkeyes still beat Michigan on the glass by a 39-30 margin. Tim Hardaway Jr. accounted for nine points, but he shot just 2-of-13 from the field and failed on all eight of his three-pointers. As a starter in all 18 games, it only makes sense that Hardaway would be the top scorer for the Wolverines with his 15.7 ppg, although one might have to question his persistence in trying to become a perimeter threat with just 28.6 percent accuracy beyond the arc. Burke (14.3 ppg) has also put himself out there as a passing threat now that he has almost twice as many assists (89) as anyone else on the roster.
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Kentucky Wildcats will try to extend their winning streak to 10 games in a row tonight as they host the Arkansas Razorbacks in a Southeastern Conference battle at Rupp Arena. This will be the 33rd meeting between Arkansas and Kentucky. The Wildcats hold a 24-8 advantage in the rivalry. The Razorbacks ended a 10-game losing streak to Kentucky last season with an overtime victory, but have gone just 2-11 in Lexington all-time with their last victory in Rupp Arena coming during the 1993-1994 season.
John Calipari has won 45 straight at Rupp Arena since taking over the helm, which is the longest home-winning streak in the nation. Kentucky survived a close call with Tennessee its last time out, as it won 65-62 to make its overall record 17-1 and its SEC mark a perfect 3-0. Kentucky has outscored its opponents by a league-best 20.4 ppg this season, The Wildcats' high-powered offense is ranked second in the league with an average of 79.3 ppg, on a conference leading 48.3 percent shooting from the field. Kentucky is atop the SEC standings in rebounding margin and blocked shots as well.
The Wildcats have been racking up blocked shots behind Anthony Davis' NCAA leading average of 4.6 per game. Davis is just one block away from the program's single season record of 83. The freshman forward has contributed in other aspects as well, as he has tallied nine double-doubles already. Terrance Jones, Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Marquis Teague all own scoring averages in double figures and have the ability to step into the spotlight and take over games which makes the Wildcats a nearly impossible team to stop.
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Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds
Will he or won't he? Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.
Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.
"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."
Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.
Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.
But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.
Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback. It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.
Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Baltimore Ravens 15-1
Buffalo Bills 50-1
Carolina Panthers 18-1
Chicago Bears 10-1
Cincinnati Bengals 15-1
Cleveland Browns 100-1
Dallas Cowboys 15-1
Denver Broncos 15-1
Detroit Lions 100-1
Green Bay Packers 50-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Indianapolis Colts 6-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1
Kansas City Chiefs 30-1
Miami Dolphins 40-1
Minnesota Vikings 75-1
New England Patriots 10-1
New Orleans Saints 18-1
New York Giants 20-1
New York Jets 30-1
Oakland Raiders 100-1
Philadelphia Eagles 18-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1
Saint Louis Rams 60-1
San Diego Chargers 6-1
San Francisco 49ers 75-1
Seattle Seahawks 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1
Tennessee Titans 40-1
Washington Redskins 50-1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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